The Ministry forecasts revenue from three streams:

  • Petrol Excise Duty (PED),
  • Road User Charges(RUC),
  • Motor Vehicle Registrations (MVR)

Forecasts are run at least twice a year for inclusion in the Treasury’s fiscal updates(external link).

Forecasts also inform land transport investment under the Government Policy Statement on Land Transport, and the National Land Transport Programme(external link).

The Ministry's quarterly revenue snapshots provide an update on the forecast performance versus actual revenue data. In 2013/14, the Ministry commissioned a review of its revenue forecasting model, and adopted a new forecasting model.

Revenue forecasts and quarterly snapshots for 2018:

Revenue forecasts and quarterly snapshots for 2017:

Revenue forecasts and quarterly snapshots for 2016:

Revenue forecasts and quarterly snapshots for 2015: